A Multidisciplinary Approach to Genetic Risk Assessment
The Pufendorf Institute for Advanced Studies’ (IAS) Greyzone Genomics research team brings together experts from genomics, medicine, bioinformatics, intelligence studies, law, war studies, and psychological defense. Their goal: to conduct a comprehensive, evidence-based assessment of how genomic and synthetic biology technologies could be exploited in international conflicts.
By integrating biomedical research with intelligence analysis, the team has identified four key areas where genetic technologies could be misused in greyzone and armed conflicts:
1. Genetic information superiority: The team has charted global flows of genetic raw data, using public archives to identify entities hoarding genetic data and irregular actors requesting data.
2. Genetic precision weapons: By fact-checking narratives of so-called ethnic or genetic bioweapons using databases of human genetic variation, the team brings forward a novel, contrarian assessment arguing that targeted drug production is more worrying than synthetic pathogens.
3. Leveraging genetic data in the greyzone: Using classical “what-if” and “red team” analysis to evaluate the feasibility and incentives for misusing genetic technology for smearing campaigns, framing, blackmail, and behavioral prediction - the teams present fact-based arguments what to worry most about .
4. Genetic disinformation: By studying recent historical disinformation campaigns with a genetic component, such as the Ukrainian biolabs conspiracy, the team will suggest a novel classification of science-based cognitive warfare and use this as a basis to explore mitigation strategies at multiple levels: from individual scientists to law- and policymakers.
Addressing a Critical Knowledge Gap
By moving beyond sensationalist narratives, the Greyzone Genomics team provides a more grounded and nuanced assessment of the risks posed by emerging genetic technologies. Their research aims to inform policymakers, security experts, and the scientific community about the real-world implications of DNA technologies in an increasingly unstable geopolitical landscape.
As genetic technology continues to advance, so too must our understanding of its potential risks—not just in the lab, but on the global stage.
Open lecture in English 7 May at the Swedish Defence University
The research group Greyzone Genomics from the Pufendorf Institute at Lund University invites you to a discussion on threat scenarios linked to emerging genetic technologies.
The event begins with a keynote lecture by Filippa Lentzos, King’s College London, an expert on biosafety and international relations, who will speak on the intersection of genetics and disinformation in international affairs. This will be followed by a presentation from interdisciplinary research group and a panel discussion, where the audience is encouraged to ask questions and contribute comments on the strategic implications for Sweden.
More information and programme for the event on 7 May: Evidence-based risk assessment of genetic technology in international conflict | PUFENDORFINSTITUTET
Registration no later than 23 April (registration form in Swedish, mandatory for presence): Anmälan till Grey-zone Genomics 7 maj kl 15:00-18:00 - Sverigesalen v2
Hosts: The Pufendorf Institute of Advanced Studies, Lund University; in collaboration with the Swedish Defence University and Swedish Defence Research Agency.
Contact: David Gisselsson Nord, MD, PhD. David [dot] Gisselsson_Nord [at] med [dot] lu [dot] se (David[dot]Gisselsson_Nord[at]med[dot]lu[dot]se)
Read more about the interdisciplinary Theme at Pufendorf IAS
Greyzone Genomics | The Pufendorf Institute for Advanced Studies